AU Blogspot

Consumer confidence (the term used by the Conference Board) and consumer sentiment (the label used by the University of Michigan) are not quite at their all-time lows, but they are very close to them.

This seems a little odd because two of the biggest elements of consumer attitudes, unemployment and inflation, are quite benign.

Unemployment, at 5.5 percent, is a hair below its long-run average (5.6 percent).  Inflation (all items) is 4.1 percent, only a little above its long-run average of 3.7 percent.

Why the doom and gloom? (more…)

 
          Thanks to Rob West for permission to use this Photo.

Our new Ashworth University Discussion Forum has been sparking some lively debate.  If you haven’t checked out the forum yet, what are you waiting for?—get engaged with your student community!

Ashworth University Business Student, Frederick F, states: 

I recently completed the Macroeconomics course, and all the negative things about Keynes were wrong!

I do agree with government intervention to get the economy out of recession and depression as a better solution by lowering interest rates and major government projects to get people employed and spending money.

However… I wrote projects, not programs. Programs that are started to help people don’t usually work, just enough to keep people employed and create more red tape.

As for supply and demand side economics, I side with Jean-Baptiste Say whom said “Demand creates it’s own supply”

Keynes basically said that excessive saving can lead to recession or depression, True, but today we are experiencing excessive greed which is causing our current recession. (High gas prices and the mortgage crisis.)

Ashworth University Technical Services Supervisor And Resident Economist, John Ash, responds:

Well, Keynes’ ideas look dynamite on paper, but they suffer from the minute flaw of not actually holding up in the real world. I know, I know, we should ignore that and just let the beauty of his carefully constructed theories suffer no detractors, but those of us who are actually studying economics to understand the world better and use that knowledge to improve our own lives (i.e., make more money) can’t allow such intricate economic fallacies to remain unmolested.

Keynes’ theories were gospel for the economic advisors of the 60s and 70s, and it is generally believed (among economists anyway) that strict adherence to his policy recommendations led to the stagflation of those decades (stagflation is when the economy is in a recession but inflation is increasing, two things which are supposed to be mutually exclusive by Keynesian standards). Keynes is a good starting point for understanding economics, but modern post-industrial economies are far too complex to be modeled with it. Don’t fall into the trap of trying to find one unifying principle which will explain everything; it’s never going to happen. There are a lot of variables, and usually no single one is going to accurately predict the movement of the economy. (more…)

While the “experts” continue to debate whether our economy is in a recession, the rest of us working in the real world have already determined that the semantic definition of this crisis is the least of our concerns.  In the following podcast interview, Dale Collie, a former corporate executive and elite U.S. Army Ranger shares the lessons he has learned throughout his life on how to cope with the stress caused by difficult circumstances.  Although focusing primarily on how the business manager of today can effectively lead, inspire, and provide stability to workers during times of economic hardship; this podcast also offers some “big picture” perspectives that anyone can apply in their personal lives as well.  I think you’ll enjoy this podcast. Please share your thoughts in the comments section of this post.  I’d also like to thank Bill Conerly for conducting this outstanding interview. Thanks…

Ryan Rode
Interactive Services Manager
Ashworth University  

                   Thanks to J. Parks for permission to use this Photo. 

The most important phase of property valuation is also the most controversial and least known.  This procedure is called the rate of capitalization.  It is used to determine a market rate of capitalization.  Through this rate, estimated future net income can be converted into a sum of present value.  The rate of capitalization acts as a lever which pushes income into a height of value.  Here is how the lever works.  The lower the rate of capitalization is, the higher the value per dollar of income is.  Thus, the value of a particular property will also be higher.  The opposite is true if the rate is higher.  The higher the rate of capitalization is, the lower the value per dollar of income is.  Thus, the value of a particular property will also be lower. 

If speculation or motives other than investment buying are prime reasons for purchase, the sale price of the property in relation to its income is of little aid to an appraiser in search of applicable market rates of capitalization.  In fact, such sales may prove highly misleading as indicators of prevailing yields on real estate investments.  You can see why I stated earlier that the rate of capitalization procedure is very controversial.  This procedure has the potential to yield misleading results. 

Most appraisers would find themselves at a loss if the application of the income approach and the selection of a rate of capitalization had to be sustained solely by analysis of investment sales in their community.  You may wonder why this is true.  Well, real estate transactions are traditionally private in nature and factual income data is often difficult to obtain.  Thus, it is very difficult to select sales which could be usefully employed for statistical income analysis.

Although real estate as a commodity is local in character, the financing and purchase of real estate, both for investment and speculative purposes, have the distinct characteristics of a national market.  The mobility of credit and the flexibility of investment buying with income reserves and surpluses have channeled funds into community areas where the investment returns in relation to capital markets are the highest.  The existence of a national real estate investment market makes national income and rates of return statistics, compiled by investment firms and real estate analysts, available for real properties.  These national indices of investment yields, when adjusted for community and regional risks for given classes of real properties, can be used as effective guides in judging the reasonability of rates of capitalization secured from market analyses of comparable sales.  

Bob Chaapel
Real Estate Appraisal Instructor
Ashworth University

 
           Thanks to Rashida Simmons for permission to use this Photo.

OK, I know what you are all thinking!  It’s spring; the daffodils are blooming; the cherry trees are in full blossom; the birds are singing their happy springtime songs; the sweaters have been packed away; love is in the air; so, what is the problem?  Why would someone begrudgingly say, “It’s THAT time of year, again?”  What could possibly be the problem with spring? 

April 15^th is upon us and this is a date which strikes fear into the fiercest of hearts!  It is a time when the good citizens of our country must file their income tax returns.  “The National Bureau of Economic Research has concluded that the combined federal, state, and local government average marginal tax rate for most workers to be about 40% of income” (Wikipedia, 2008).   According to Brigham and Houston (2000), that figure could reach about 50% for some taxpayers (p. 61). What does this mean for all of us?  It means that a large portion of your total earnings are due in the form of tax payments.  In other words, you must work from January through April or May to pay your tax debt. 

Those of you who have been working for several years understand this concept more than some who have not yet held a job or filed their first income tax return.  For the entrepreneur, this concept takes on an additional meaning.  Not only will you have to file income tax returns for your own personal income, but you will also be responsible for filing corporate tax returns.  This is the reason why folks, who are about to start their own small business, need the services of a qualified tax accountant. 

If the thought of deciphering tax laws makes you a little crazy, do not worry!  According to Eugene Brigham and Joel Houston (2000), authors of Fundamentals of Financial Management,  “Taxes are so complicated that university law schools offer master’s degrees in taxation to lawyers, many of whom are also CPAs” (p. 61). The good news?  We don’t have to know all of the tax laws to own and operate our own businesses and to be successful; we just have to hire the right CPA.   

As an entrepreneur, you should be aware of the following taxes: Payroll taxes, Corporate, State, Local, Government, Income, Sales, and Property taxes. To emphasize the importance of understanding the objectives of taxation, let’s take a closer look at just one form: payroll taxes. 

Payroll taxes include Social Security and Medicare tax.   Employees are required to pay taxes on all wages and salaries from their place of employment; however, individuals must also pay taxes on investment income and on profits which are generated by proprietorships or partnerships.  The Social Security tax, listed as FICA on your paycheck stub, is a 6.2% tax of the income generated by the employee and matched by the employer. How does this affect the small business owner?  You actually have to pay double tax on your earned income to the tune of 12.4% because you are the employee AND the employer.  One piece of good news, this tax is not applicable to income which has not been earned (i.e., income from interest, dividends, or royalties). (more…)

                Thanks to Len Peralta for permission to use this Photo. 

As the deadline for completing 2007 tax returns approaches, more and more people are filing returns each and every day. Once the headaches of making sure all your information is accurate and all your paperwork has been submitted, you should know in advance if you can expect a tax refund this year. As with any income, it’s a good idea to think about what you’re going to do in advance and make a plan for how you will use it. We always quote the saying that “no plan is a plan to fail,” and it seems true that many of the worst financial decisions are those made compulsively. Since tax refunds are getting turned around more quickly than ever these days, take the time in between when you file and when you receive your refund to really think about what you’ll do with the money you get back. 

Here are seven ideas we at 22Dollars brainstormed to help get the wheels turning when it comes to your 2007 tax refund: 

* Deposit it in your savings account to help you meet your savings goals.

* Spend it on something you’ve needed to buy for a while and that will help save you money in the long run – like a fuel efficient car for example.

* Invest it in your retirement fund or in stocks you’ve researched.

* Pay it toward debts you have such as school loans or credit card debt to help yourself avoid spending additional money on interest payments. (more…)

                             Thanks to Richard for permission to use this Photo.

Have you ever watched a potter while he was molding a piece of clay into a masterpiece? It is not the tidiest job in the world! The clay mixed with water forms a gooey paste which the potter molds using his hands and fingers. At the same time the potter is molding the clay with his hands and fingers, his foot is working a pedal which controls the spin of a turnstile. His precise control of the foot pedal and the precision involved with molding and moving the clay, coupled with knowledge of just how much water and clay to add to the mix during the molding process are all necessary in order for the potter to create a masterpiece. Yet, this is still not all that it takes. The artist must also have an idea of the finished product in mind before he begins to take the first step in the molding process.

Can you see a common denominator here between the potter and an entrepreneur who is starting and operating a new business? (more…)

              Thanks to Luis Ramirez for permission to use this Photo.

It isn’t adequate to say ‘I am a long-term investor’ and I don’t need to pay attention to the impending financial turbulence.

But how do we deal with this? How do we respond to as well as anticipate market action? How do we preserve our capital during market corrections while being able to maximize our exposure to equities during market bull runs?

After many years of investing (I actually purchased my first stock as a 13 year old back in 1967), I have come to believe that a strategy is possible to accomplish this if you are willing to be disciplined and observant of your own stocks and of the market overall.

First of all, try to identify a universe of stocks that you believe are ‘investable’. I have my own criteria of consistent revenue growth, earnings growth, free cash flow, stable shares, and a solid balance sheet. But my criteria may not be yours. You might develop a list of stocks that exhibit good value, that exercise responsible stewardship of the earth, or whatever your particular preference might be. It doesn’t really matter. But stay consistent.

Next of all, decide what the size of portfolio would be ideal for you. I initially settled on 25 different stocks. Currently I have switched to a 20 position portfolio as a maximum number of stocks I wish to own. It doesn’t matter what the size will be. But pick your maximum and stick to it.

Now bear with me as I go through this strategy. It makes sense to me and I think you will understand my thinking as we review this.

Let us assume that our investment posture will vary with our ‘exposure’ to stocks. That being fully invested is ideal in a strong market (20 positions). And being minimally invested is best in a weak investment environment (5 positions). And I vary my investment exposure based on the market’s effects on my own holdings. That is when my own portfolio is acting ‘healthy’ I am moving from cash towards equities and when my own portfolio is acting ‘ill’ I shift from equities towards cash. (more…)

                  Thanks to Mattia for permission to use this Photo.

We’ve been fortunate enough to share the insightful perspectives of economist and entrepreneur Bill Conerly with our student community since this blog first launched in 2007.  Mr. Conerly is not only a contributing blogger, but someone we consider a friend of the greater Ashworth University community as well.  He was recently interviewed on the Small Business Advocate Radio Show on the topic of business planning after the recession.  The issues covered are of vital importance to anyone one with small business aspirations, so I highly recommend listening to this very informative podcast interview.  You can also visit Bill’s Businomics Blog to show your appreciation for his efforts on behalf of our Ashworth Blogspot readers.  Thanks everyone.

Ryan Rode
Ashworth University

  
               Image courtesy of Stanley Donwood/Radiohead.

Monday’s Wall Street Journal  had columns by Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama’s advisors.  In a post last week I chided Mitt Romney for glib generalities.  Now Clinton gives us the opposite extreme:  government by laundry list.  Remember some of the awful State of the Union speeches, in which the President (pick any recent president you wish) says: “There’s a problem with X; I have a new program.  There’s a problem with Y; I have a new program.  There’s a problem with Z; I have a new program.”  Well, that’s Hilary’s column.  I liked the internal consistency of her message at first, in that she presented a broad area of concern, then specified action steps to deal with the area.  That appeals to my analytical side.  But she shows no real philosophy about how government should operate, merely that for every conceivable problem there should be a new government program.  Gag.

If you don’t like laundry lists of specifics, then Obama is your man.  He apparently believes in content-free leadership.  His major theme: bringing people together.  Ending the divisive partisanship that infects Washington DC.  I’m not sold that a) he can end partisanship, and that b) we’ll get better policy without partisanship.  He has not made that case (it would require specifics, which Obama isn’t in to).  I confess that I really miss the Bill Clinton administration, when gridlock prevented action and we were all focused on that blue dress.  Remember, the economy was strong and the budget was in surplus while Congress was gridlocked.  Sigh. (more…)